Estimating Construction Project Duration and Costs upon Completion Using Monte Carlo Simulations and Improved Earned Value Management

Earned value management (EVM) is widely used when monitoring and estimating operations related to construction projects. As the scope complexity of projects expand, traditional EVM sometimes ineffective even results in conclusions that are contrary actual situation. Additionally, estimate produced by a deterministic does not account for uncertainty activities involved project. This study proposes an estimation approach combines improved EVM, critical path method (CPM), program evaluation review technique (PERT), Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The contribution threefold. Firstly, path-based schedule measurement described using network diagrams CPM capture logical relationships among activities. Secondly, resource input categorizes improve accuracy duration cost estimates. remaining will be estimated based on execution performance same category. Thirdly, PERT MCS approaches reveal estimates upon completion replacing with possible range. An experimental research was apply proposed approach. result displayed commercial expansion project faced serious delays overruns. Based result, manager should focus highly J, H, G (in order priority) take corrective actions. In conclusion, demonstrates good identifying deviations, precise results, determining importance (priority) need controlled.